Action Forex (ALL)

Highlights of the Minutes from the April 24/25 FOMC meeting

Wed, 16 May 2012 12:55:17 PDT

The Minutes of the April 24/25 FOMC meeting indicated that Committee members viewed that the economy "continued to expand moderately" in the period since the last meeting in March. While some members noted increased confidence in the "durability of the recovery", other cautioned against prematurely inferring strong underlying trends given

FOMC Minutes a Non-Event Against USD Strength: USD Index Approaches 2012 High

Wed, 16 May 2012 12:29:40 PDT

The FOMC Minutes was released. As far as stimulus goes: “Several members indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary if the economic recovery lost momentum or the downside risks to the forecast became great enough”. This is just rhetoric, and actually not as strong as we saw in the

(FED) Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee April 24-25, 2012

Wed, 16 May 2012 11:06:45 PDT

A staff presentation provided an overview of an exercise that explored individual participants' views on appropriate monetary policy responses under alternative economic scenarios. Committee participants discussed the potential value and drawbacks of this type of exercise for both internal deliberations and external communications about monetary policy. Possible benefits include helping

US Industrial Production Posts Larger-than-Expected Gain in April

Wed, 16 May 2012 08:30:03 PDT

US industrial production jumped 1.1% in April, beating market expectations going into the report for a 0.6% increase. The previously reported flat readings for both February and March were revised to show changes of +0.4% and -0.6%, respectively, though the net impact of the revisions saw the first-quarter average remain

US Housing Starts Rose in April; First Quarter Revised Up

Wed, 16 May 2012 08:28:25 PDT

Privately owned housing starts in the US rose 2.6% in April to an annualized pace of 717,000 units, from a revised 699,000 units in March (previously reported as 654K,000) Market expectations going into the report had been for an increase to 685,000 (+4.7%) while RBC looked for a 2.4% gain.

Canadian Manufacturing Sales Jump 1.9% in March

Wed, 16 May 2012 08:27:03 PDT

Canadian manufacturing sales rose 1.9% in March, rebounding from 0.2% and 2.3% drops in February and January, respectively. Much of the gain in March was concentrated in transportation and petroleum and coal sales, with more modest, albeit still solid, gains elsewhere. Boosting the transportation component, motor vehicle sales climbed 2.3%

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9380

Wed, 16 May 2012 08:21:23 PDT

As the greenback has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 0.9471, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and test of 0.9400 is likely, however, previous resistance at 0.9372 should limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would extend recent upmove to 0.9500-05 (1.236 times projection

Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6010

Wed, 16 May 2012 08:17:58 PDT

As cable has rebounded after intra-day selloff to 1.5889, suggesting a minor low is formed and consolidation would be seen and test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5965) is likely, however, upside should be limited to intra-day resistance at 1.5997 and renewed selling interests should emerge around 1.6005-10 (50% Fibonacci

Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Buy again at 79.90

Wed, 16 May 2012 08:15:40 PDT

Despite intra-day anticipated rise to 80.56, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below indicated previous resistance at 80.61, suggesting consolidation would be seen and below the Kijun-Sen (now at 80.28) would bring retracement to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 79.91-93) but renewed buying interests should emerge there and bring

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2810

Wed, 16 May 2012 08:14:23 PDT

As the single currency has rebounded after intra-day fall to 1.2682, suggesting consolidation would be seen and retracement to 1.2770-80 is likely, however, previous support at 1.2814 would limit upside and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend recent decline towards 1.2650, however, near term oversold condition should

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8080

Wed, 16 May 2012 07:45:00 PDT

Despite intra-day marginal fall to 0.7951 (yesterday’s low was 0.7953), lack of follow through and current rebound suggest a minor low is possibly formed and consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for retracement to 0.8045-50, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 0.8080 and bring another decline. A

Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 0.9900

Wed, 16 May 2012 07:39:22 PDT

As the greenback has retreated after intra-day brief rise to 1.0131, suggesting minor top is formed and consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0000 is likely, however, as a temporary low has been formed at 0.9800, downside should be limited to 0.9900 and bring another rebound later. A break

Housing Starts Break 700K for the Third Time Since 2008

Wed, 16 May 2012 07:31:37 PDT

Housing starts appear to have reached a new plateau above 700K in the first few months of 2012. While we do not expect a major resurgence in housing construction over the next several months, this support level is likely to form the new floor for housing construction. With the gain

USD/JPY Breaks Above Channel Resistance; Trades at May High

Wed, 16 May 2012 07:14:07 PDT

USD/JPY indeed bottomed out in the short-term and broke above a declining channel resistance. The 1H chart shows the bottoming formation. There is resistance in the 80.50-80.60 area. This is the May high established in the beginning of the month.

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

Wed, 16 May 2012 06:48:59 PDT

EUR: Despite falling to 1.2682 earlier today in European session, the pair has rebounded in part due to risk appetite on recovery in Dow Future and bids from Asian names (some are for profit-taking purposes) are still noted from 1.2690 down to 1.2670 and further out at 1.2630-40. On the

USD/CAD Breaks Key Resistance Opening Up the 1.30 Handle

Wed, 16 May 2012 06:46:46 PDT

The USD/CAD finally breaks above the 1.0050-1.0060 resistance, suggesting a bullish trend developing after a period of sideways trading below 1.0050. Looking at the 1H chart we see that the previous resistance is being treated as the market rejects a throwback attempt. A throwback to 1.00-1.0020 area would not be against

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Wed, 16 May 2012 06:31:48 PDT

With 1.2814 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside and deeper decline is expected to 1.2625 low. Also, whole decline from 1.4939 is possibly resuming and break of 1.2625 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4246 to 1.2625 from 1.3486 at 1.2484 next. On the upside, above

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Wed, 16 May 2012 06:31:05 PDT

With 0.9374 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside. Current rally from 0.8930 is expected to continue towards 0.9594 high next. On the downside, below 0.9374 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation first. But in that case, downside should be contained well above

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Wed, 16 May 2012 06:28:53 PDT

USD/JPY's recovery from 79.42 extends higher but is still limited below 80.61 resistance. Outlook remains cautiously bearish and recent decline is still expected to continue. Below 79.42 will target 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.17 at 79.13 first. Break will pave the way to 75.56/76.02 support zone. However, above 80.61

Central Banks' to the Rescue?

Wed, 16 May 2012 06:22:42 PDT

The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won't regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the