Action Forex (ALL)

Sentiment Higher as BoE Eases, Greek Leaders Agree on Austerity

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:41:47 PST

USD is weaker against all of the G10 currencies except for the JPY and NOK. The Dollar Index continues to decline within its daily ichimoku cloud and approaches possible support at the base of the cloud around 77.85/90. Risk sentiment is firmer after the BOE announces more accommodative policy and

As Expected, BOE Added More Stimulus while ECB Stood Aside

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:39:17 PST

The BOE expanded the asset purchase program by +50B pound to 325B pound and left the Bank rate at 0.5%. As mentioned in the policy statement, "the underlying pace of recovery slowed during 2011, with activity falling slightly during the final quarter. While policymakers noted that "some recent business surveys

ECB Further Loosens Collateral Criteria

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 07:53:07 PST

The ECB president stuck to a mainly "wait and see" mode in his press conference reiterating the position that economic conditions have stabilized at low levels but showed concern about downside risks ahead. From ECB Statement: "Available survey indicators confirm some tentative signs of a stabilisation in economic activity at a

Mario Draghi Provided no Spark at the ECB Press Conference; EUR/USD Keeps Bullish Bias

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 07:51:19 PST

I did not get much of anything new or surprising from Mario Draghi's statement, and the market looks like it didn't neither, at least in the EUR/USD reaction, which failed to define direction. Heading into the press conference, the EUR/USD bounced off a projected rising trendline from a low of

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell in the Week Ending February 4, 2012

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 07:25:26 PST

US initial unemployment insurance claims declined 15,000 to 358,000 in the week ending February 4, 2012, thereby building on a 6,000 drop to an upwardly revised 373,000 level (initially reported as 367,000) the previous week. The level of claims in the latest week was below market expectations for a 370,000

Should Euro Rise or Fall on Greek Deal?

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 06:49:11 PST

The market wants to celebrate the Greek bailout deal as a Euro positive, but isn't there also a Euro-bearish case to be made in the wake of this deal as well? Also, USDJPY pushing at key resistance. As we are writing this, there are reports of a deal on Greece

BoE Does Another £50bn QE - Buying Strategy Changed

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 06:39:33 PST

The Bank of England announced earlier today that it will continue with its quantitative easing programme. Specifically, the Bank of England will purchase £50bn Gilts over the next three months, i.e. monthly buying will decrease slightly from £18.7bn to £16.7bn. As the bond supply in H1 is slightly higher than

Mid-Day Report: Euro Mildly Firmer as Greek Austerity Deal Reached, ECB on Hold, BoE Added QE

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 06:31:14 PST

Euro is mildly firmer in early US session on report that Greek politicians have finally agreed on the austerity deal. The majority Socialist said that Prime Minister Papademos reached a tentative agreement with three coalition party leaders after a marathon meeting but no detail is released yet. This is confirmed

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 06:02:44 PST

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations could be seen below 122.85 temporary top. But retreat is expected to be contained well above 119.58 support and bring another rise. Above 122.85 will extend the rally from 117.29 towards 100% projection of 117.29 to 122.04 from

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:59:28 PST

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside with 101.65 minor support intact. Current rebound from 97.03 is expected to continue towards 100% projection of 97.03 to 102.20 from 99.24 at 104.41. On the downside, below 101.65 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 99.24 support holds.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:55:07 PST

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside with 1.3214 minor support intact. Current rise from 1.2625 is expected to continue towards 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627. On the downside, below 1.3214 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 1.3028 support is

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:52:23 PST

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidation could be seen below 1.5928 temporary top. But near term outlook remains cautiously bullish as long as 1.5729 support holds. Above 1.5928 will target 1.6165 key cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.6746 to 1.5234 at 1.6168). Break will

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:50:11 PST

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside with 0.9151 minor resistance intact. Current fall from 0.9594 is expected to continue to 0.9065 next. As noted before, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, whole rebound from 0.7065 is possibly finished. Break of 0.9065 support will target 0.8567 key support

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:48:17 PST

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 77.35 so far in early US session and remains firm. Intraday bias is on the upside for stronger rally. But still, note again that near term outlook remains bearish as long as 78.28 resistance holds and fall from 79.52 is in favor to

BOE's Cautious QE Path and Why GBP is Immune to it all...

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:23:25 PST

Today the BOE increased QE by GBP50bn and kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, as expected. In his letter to the Chancellor BOE Governor Mervyn King said that the extra QE was necessary to ensure inflation doesn't undershoot its target. Even though King said that the growth picture had picked

FX Thoughts for the Day

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:20:48 PST

Dollar-Swiss failed to extend its downmove strongly below 0.9100 and has bounced back well from its low of 0.9090. It will have to be seen whether the pair gains upside momentum for further rise. The pair could find Resistance in 0.9160-80 region which could keep it pressured on the downside.

Greece is Close to a Deal

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:14:46 PST

Although negotiating through the night, Greek politicians did not reach an agreement on the required austerity measures. As they have now failed to meet about five deadlines, the Greeks will have to adhere to a very tight schedule if Greece is to avert a sovereign default on 20 March, when

BoE Expands QE by 50Bn Pounds Instead of 75Bn; GBP Rallies

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:04:24 PST

The Bank of England was expected to expand its Bond purchasing program, aka Quantitative Easing from £275bn to £325bn. Economists had forecast a larger expansion of £75bn to £350bn. The sterling market had stalled it’s recent strength coming into the BoE’s scheduled meeting.

Central Banks Front and Centre Today

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 04:27:33 PST

I sit here, hand firmly grasping my third cup of coffee for the morning as I desperately battle to stay awake in the midst of absolutely nothing happening in the market. Deadline, after misleading headline, after yet another deadline on Greece later and still no progress. Vols across the board are

Sterling Steady as BoE Left Rates Unchanged, Expand QE by GBP 50b

Thu, 09 Feb 2012 04:16:38 PST

Sterling remains steady after BoE did what markets expected, keeping rates unchanged at 0.5% and raised the size of the asset purchase program by GBP 50b to GBP 325b as "more likely than not that inflation would undershoot the 2% target in the medium term". In the accompanying statement, the