Fundamental Analysis

EM & Commodity Currencies Well Bid Post-NFP

Sat, 04 Feb 2012 04:17:43 GMT

The Jan. NFP cards have been dealt and US equities are up more than +1% on the back of the much better than expected figures (243k vs. consensus 140k on the headline number, 257k vs. 160k for private payrolls). In FX, ZAR (South African Rand) gaining +1% vs. USD so

Central Banks - Still Easing for Now

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:52:12 GMT

Another week closes with the promise of a deal on the Greek PSI debt swap. The urgency for such a deal is rising with a hard deadline of 13 February approaching. The coming week will be a question of sequencing. The coming days should see Greece agree with the Troika

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Signals Improving Sentiment

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:42:42 GMT

On the heels of a better-than-expected print for nonfarm payrolls, today's ISM non-manufacturing survey lifts expectations for further job gains in the coming months. Indeed, the employment component soared to 57.4 the highest level in almost six years. In a typical month, the ISM non-manufacturing index comes out just

Employment: Gains in Jobs and Hours Worked Tell of Growth

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:39:43 GMT

January's increase of 243,000 in nonfarm jobs continued the string of monthly job gains in many sectors as evidenced by the positive turns in all three super sectors shown in the top graph. Consistent monthly gains have been evident in business services, education, health and leisure and hospitality. Hiring in

U.S. Service Sector Growth Surged in January

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:35:09 GMT

The ISM non-manufacturing index showed that the service sector expanded in January 2012 and that the pace of growth accelerated sharply as indicated by the gauge rising to 56.8 from 53.0 in December 2011 (a reading above 50 indicates that the sector is generally expanding; higher readings indicate a faster

Weekly Focus: The Clouds are Lifting a Bit

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:33:39 GMT

PMIs from most of the world increased in January, signalling an improvement in global industry. For Europe, the numbers support our view that the sharpest fall in production in this recession happened in Q4 11 and that the European economies are on course for positive growth rates again in Q2 12.

Strong US Data Sees Split Market Reaction

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:25:20 GMT

The immediate reaction to the strong US employment data was rather bifurcated, so while USDCAD AUDUSD and USDJPY have largely followed our script in the wake of the report the action against the European majors have so far not done so, likely due to the very significant upside surprise

3 Implications & Breakdown of Jan NFP Report

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:17:21 GMT

Today's non-farm payroll data came in very strong with an uptick in manufacturing hiring adding to robust gains in the services industries. This has strong implications for risk assets, and the prospects for the US economy as well as for global growth. The reaction was a strong gain in US

US: Upbeat Jobs Report

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 15:07:41 GMT

US non-farm payrolls rose 243k in December. Net revisions were +3k. This was the second month in a row that employment has risen by more than 200k. This is very encouraging in light of the low expectations, as most saw December's increase in service employment as a product of temporary

U.S. Payroll Employment Surges in January

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 14:49:38 GMT

Today's report provided the encouraging news that both employment gains strengthened going into 2012 and the unemployment rate moved lower. Despite this improvement, however, the unemployment rate remains historically high. To assure further improvement in labour market conditions, the Fed will continue to keep monetary conditions highly accommodative. Our forecast

Canada's Labour Market Disappointed in January 2012

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 14:46:33 GMT

Data have been running hot and cold, with today's employment report showing little change in employment after declines in two of the previous three months. On net, the labour market generated 20,000 new jobs since September 2011. Canada's labour market is showing signs of fatigue after very strong growth in

Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Handsomely; Unemployment Rate Declines

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 13:54:15 GMT

Our US Employment preview pointed to a gain in payrolls of 130,000, which was10,000 below consensus, but the reality is that the US economy added 243,000 jobs in January. We are more than pleased about our miss, however, as the US labour market, undeterred by seasonality which usually hurts January

Markets Await Payrolls

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 13:19:40 GMT

USD is slightly weaker and sentiment is moderately higher after better than expected services PMI figures in Europe. Asian equities were mixed and European stock markets and U.S. stock futures are currently trading to the upside. UST yields are relatively unchanged ahead of key data. Markets have consolidated and are

European Market Update

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 11:29:19 GMT

Better European Services PMI data coupled with continued optimism that a Greek bailout deal would occur soon boosted risk appetite in the session. Price action was light ahead of the key US non-farm payroll data but the session saw a softer USD and an easing in the peripheral bond yields.

European Services Improve In January, The Focus Returns On Greece

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 10:57:27 GMT

As this busy week comes to an end, the sentiment returns once again to advance in the market after the confirmed improvement in the performance of the European services sectors, which spread optimism in the market ahead of the critical jobs report from the world's largest economy.

Pivotal Payrolls Day For USD Majors

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 10:55:08 GMT

Several of the major USD pairs are at pivotal levels ahead of the US employment report and ISM non-manufacturing survey. The outcome of these key reports could be decisive as major USD pairs are at interesting pivot levels.

UK Services PMI A Barn-Stormer, More QE On Hold

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 10:50:22 GMT

Another positive surprise in UK data land today, as the Purchasing Manager's Index, (PMI), for the Services sector of the economy came out at 56.0, surging past expectations for 53.3. Given this sector accounts for 75 percent of the UK economoy and that the Manufacturing Sector PMI, released on Wednesday,

Stalled Greece Negotiations Will Weigh On Euro Going Forward

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 09:53:09 GMT

Talks between Greece and its private sector creditors have still not come to a conclusion and there has been a complete absence of updates on progress this week raising the uncomfortable possibility that negotiations drag on into another week. The immediate consequences of this lack of resolution are clear;

Fancy EURUSD Pinball? Circus Back In Town So Bring Own Helmet!

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 09:49:33 GMT

Between month end madness on Tuesday and Non Farm Friday funnies today this market is not living up to normal February liquidity, volume or rationality. Yesterday’s price action around Merkel’s visit to China spruiking her wares and Premier Wen’s half finished/half translated sentences certainly gives you an indication of exactly

Euro Drifting Sideways Ahead Of The Payrolls

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 09:33:27 GMT

On Thursday, the risk rally slowed, making it even more difficult for the euro to force a break higher than over the previous days. Japanese authorities are becoming very nervous on the strength of the yen. Today, the payrolls might decide to which side the domino will fall, both for