Dollar Rally Stalls as Yields and Oil Retreat Ahead of PCE, ISM and NFP
DXY has reached 101.30 and is testing 101.63–101.80 resistance near a two-month high, but the rally's momentum is flattening as two of its immediate tailwinds fade, the 10-year Treasury yield has retreated after testing the 5.24% area Monday, and oil has also pulled back. Neither move reverses the broader inflation-and-rates story, but both remove the marginal support that had been pushing Fed expectations and the Dollar higher.
Silver Has More Premium to Lose Than Gold as Yields Rise and Industrial Tightness Eases
Gold and Silver both sold off as the U.S. 10-year yield surged to a fresh multi-decade high near 5.232%, but BMO Capital Markets’ new long-term forecasts show Silver trading nearly 30% above its structural anchor of $47, versus Gold sitting just 4% above its $4,000 anchor—leaving Silver far more exposed to a premium unwind.
RBA Hiked Unanimously—Then Bullock’s “Hope” Sent Aussie Through 0.7000 Support
The RBA raised rates 25bp to 4.60% unanimously with hawkish statement language, yet AUD/USD reversed sharply after Governor Michele Bullock said further tightening was merely a “hope” rather than a base case, breaking the 0.7000 support zone within the hour.
Yen Surges on Tokyo Warning, but Oil and Yields Still Set the Broader FX Tone
Yen surged broadly Monday, pushing USD/JPY through 157, after Japan's Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura sharpened Tokyo's intervention warning, saying markets should take the coordinated Japan-US message on Yen weakness "at face value.
